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Friday, February 15, 2008

Housing Markets & Real Estate: Chile vs USA

Dog House

The USA is going through a housing crisis but in Chile the economy is booming and not only are street dogs getting fatter but it seems they've got a permanent moratorium on foreclosure.

So I wanna talk about how to move in Chile, and how different/similar it is from Chile, and ask you guys what your experience is. But first I gotta blow off a few paragraphs ranting about the housing crisis and Chile's disastrous economy. Let's start here:

Is the USA's meteoric crashing and burning eerily similar to what happened in the UK?

Now about Chile: Is Chile's looming financial crisis going to be about housing? I really don't know but a quick common sense lay-glance tells me that when it comes to financial crisis in Chile it's not "if", but "when" and "how" is the question.

"When" is anyone's guess and "how" seems like it might affect other kinds of debt, not necessarily mortgage. I don't know about the housing market, so I'm not gonna go there. But debt comes in all forms, and the USA crisis is currently seeping into credit card debt.

When it comes to credit card debt in Chile, well basically the entire population sub-prime. You know you've got a problem when you're offered a payment plan every time you check out groceries. Many Chilean consumers regularly depend on cuotas, installments. Even if they're only spending five bucks.

I once overheard a conversation between two maids, on the bus descending from their jobs in the McMansions of Santiago's affluent hills, one bragging to the other about how she'd just bought a DVD player. The other asked how she paid for it. The first maid told her it would take 18 months to pay it off.

The question is can Chile's credit-enabled sub-prime consumer class keep slaving away to make minimum payments and keep the banks liquid. The best case scenario is shitty enough. That's the miracle of Chile.

But maybe it is a miracle and you need to move uptown. Or you can't make rent and you need to move downtown. In Chile, you don't go online but you call the number of Fletes. I used to have a picture of one of these black-and-white signs that say "Flete" and they have a big phone number and you call them and tell them what you gotta move and where and they tell you the size of the truck and how many movers and you haggle out a price. Like any moving company it ain't cheap but still reasonable compared to the US. But still I think the whole process is very quaint.

In the USA, it's seems the Internet has become a vehicle for finding...vehicles. There's a site, for example, called NationalRelocation.com where they will help you move anywhere in the country. Fletes do this too. But I don't think you can find them online in Chile. Fortunately, it looks like this North American site has hope for the market, they're touting themselves as the resource for Colorado homes, like real estate in Denver, as well as real estate deals all over the country, Portland and other attractive cities to live in.

I don't really know. I think buying a house right now would be tricky. Economists warn about buying in a crashing market, because you never know where the bottom really is, it's like trying to catch a falling knife. Ouch. Nevertheless, now you know where to get some real estate, if you're crazy enough to buy in the US market. Who knows about the Chilean housing market. Is it on an upswing? I haven't been watching. Someone told me virgin years are gone and it's plateaued a bit, maybe Matt, the Valpo blogger, can tell you something about buying real estate in Chile.

Don't believe a word he says ;-)

Anyway, if you've moved in Chile what's been your experience with Fletes? Is there a web site that makes it easier/harder? What about buying property in Chile, would you do it? Discuss.
 

13 Comments:

At 2:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh come on. It took me 2 seconds to find a flete company in Chile using Google: http://www.full-flete.cl/.

It's not a neat flete search site, like nationalrelocation.com, but an actual company.

And you can find thousand others without a homepage in online Chilean white pages.

 
At 2:35 PM, Anonymous Chileno said...

Thanks! :-)

 
At 8:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Meant to say yellow pages, not white pages ;-P

 
At 10:51 AM, Blogger Matt said...

Well, since i've been asked:

The property market in chile isn't really a great investment if you're looking to get some serious capital gains. The main problem is the fact that there's so much damn construction of cheap apartment blocks that values simply don't rise at much more than the economy's rate of inflation. I mean, you can buy a 2 bedroom flat in Vina for, say, 70 million pesos-and that's what it's worth-but if if you try to sell it in a couple of years time, it won't be worth much more because buyers will have the choice between buying your second hand flat or a brand new one. Unless your flat is extra-special in some way, you won't have much luck selling, making the investment effectively worthless. The property will have a theoretical value but if you can't sell the damn thing, it's worth nothing.

If you're looking for a second home or to move to Chile then the prices are certainly attractive-after all there aren't many places in the world where you can get a large two bedroom apartment in a luxury tower with sea views in a pretty modern city with decent infrastructure like Vina for under us$180k. Just don't expect to make a killing on the capital appreciation unless you're very lucky.

And there are decent property investments in Chile-Valparaiso being one of them as the number of properties available in the area everyone wants to live or own in is very limited. As long as you know the real values and don't deal with the agents who have over-inflated the market, there are some good possibilities here. Plus it's the only city in Chile that's worth living in :)

As for the credit stuff-i'd agree that it's slightly out of control here-some people just shouldn't have credit offered to them- but i don't think it's anywhere near as bad as in the UK or the US. I also don't believe debt to necessarily be a bad thing. The cuota system in chile i'm actually a fan of, especially as it's allowed chileans to travel overseas and experience other cultures whereas before, most never had the possibility of leaving the country. Also, the fact that Chile has a solid and sophisticated enough enough financial & banking system to offer credit in the first place shows that this country is decades ahead of its neighbours. This system has allowed normal people to buy their own homes and cars, something unheard of in other countries in the region. Sure they're in debt, but debt and credit shouldn't always be dirty words. The entire world runs on credit-nations, companies big and small, individuals. Credit offers opportunities (lifestyle and business) that wouldn't otherwise be available. Our next project in Valparaiso will be bank financed-in Argentina, for example, it's virtually impossible to obtain credit so we wouldn't be able to undertake this kind of project over there.

So, to summarise:

-Chile property is not the greatest investment but you won't lose your money and there are investments here that offer pretty excellent returns if you know what you're doing.
-Debt is not the devil, although it can be when it's over extended.

 
At 11:06 AM, Anonymous Chileno said...

Your second point about the good side to debt is obvious to me, but well stated and worthwhile for some of my flock.

Your first point about buying a house to enjoy rather than make money off of is revolutionary and lovely.

 
At 5:55 AM, Blogger Missy A said...

There are parts of Valparaiso, which have experienced gentrification. Case in point cerro Conception and cerro Alegre all have lovely "Fin de siècle" homes. The beauty and quaintness of these homes have attracted many foreigners and Chileans who can afford to avoid the cheap apartment/house blocks.

 
At 6:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi,

Some comments about the debt from a local guy:
-Chileans usually pay their debt. More than 70% of the debts are payed. The lower is the income of the guy, the better he pays. That's why most companies give you their credit card. It's a good business.
-When you buy a house with a "credito hipotecario" AKA loan, banks probably ask you a lot more background information than in USA. If you are too dangerous you won't get a loan. A sub-prime crisis is less possible in Chile.
-Anyway if there is recession in the States, Chile might be touched mostly with exportations.

Mauricio

 
At 7:13 PM, Anonymous Chileno said...

70% is good? I really don't know, I'm no banker. But could you cite your source so I can look at the details and, with any luck, a comparison to other developing consumer economies or at least some statement of whether 70% payback is hot, or not?

Overall you're right that lending in Chile is a lot more conservative than the USA. At least for now. But it's opened up dramatically, in a very short period of time. What's to say that in 5, 10 years Chilean college kids won't be getting spammed with 0% credit card offers, etc?

BTW: hipoteca = mortgage. But you guys have yet to experience the joys of refinancing - that'll really breathe life into the term fiesta.

 
At 8:06 AM, Blogger Olivier Travers said...

Retail cuotas are not financed by banks, they're financial products from the retailers themselves. Traditional banks wouldn't touch lower class customers, which created the opportunity for Ripley, Falabella et. al. to step in and create the market. They're pretty much bootstrapping a broader consumer market. If at some point it becomes unsustainable, it will stop. In the meantime, you have poor people in what you call a third world country who get a bit of disposable income to spend on things such as DVDs. What's the size of the DVD player market in Peru or Bolivia again?

As long as you don't overstretch yourself and know what you get yourself into, debt is not necessarily a bad financial choice in times of rising inflation. You also get the value of what you buy earlier. But Matt already gave you plenty of free education, so I should stick to making fun of you.

 
At 9:46 AM, Anonymous Chileno said...

You were making fun of me? You're too subtle I didn't get it. Anyway Matt didn't educate me at all when saying "debt is not the devil", but I am, er, indebted to him for taking the time to spell it out for my flock.

The Bank of Falabella. Anyway I get your point. My point is that most of Chile is sub-prime, so lending is a lot more conservative as I guess it should be. But how long will that last? Since everything Chile does seems to be a carbon copy of the US, minus a few years, and the expansion of credit in Chile has been rapid (Faladeuda is new) it's not inconceivable that riskier lending will take place a few years down the road.

Even if it doesn't - and hopefully it won't - why should we celebrate people indebting themselves 18 months for a fucking DVD player when the real problem is shitty wages.

 
At 7:44 AM, Anonymous a-total-knock-out said...

My friend, you should check the meaning of words when you use them as extensively as you do in this article. "Subprime" does not mean that a population has a high debt ratio as such (which is what you seem to imply in the article), it means lending to risky borrowers. To quote Wikipedia, "Subprime lending (also known as B-paper, near-prime, or second chance lending) is the practice of making loans to borrowers who do not qualify for the best market interest rates because of their deficient credit history." This is not something you observe in Chile, to my knowledge. Besides, that makes your last comment "My point is that most of Chile is sub-prime, so lending is a lot more conservative as I guess it should be." self-contradictory. If lending is conservative, it is definitely NOT subprime.

 
At 10:35 AM, Anonymous Chileno said...

You're probably right. I was interested in an above commenter who never got back to me he said 70% of Chileans pay back loans - is that good or bad?

 
At 7:47 AM, Anonymous a-total-knock-out said...

70% is not good. If you look at the microfinance statistics, poor people usually repay over 90% of their loans, which is higher than in conventional loans, and that is the reason behind success of such micro-lending initiatives as the Grameen Bank. Amazing, if you think about it, that poor farmers and street vendors are more responsible and better planners than the rest of us.

 

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